4 reasons actuaries say health insurance premiums will change

The American Academy of Actuaries' Individual and Small Group Markets Committee has released a brief on the key drivers of health insurance premium changes.

The brief, titled "Drivers of 2017 Health Insurance Premium Changes," focuses on four major reasons premiums will change in the coming year.

1. Increasing healthcare costs. In particular, the committee expects prescription drug spending to rise more rapidly than other medical spending, which leaves room for changing premium costs.

2. The close of the Affordable Care Act's reinsurance program. The reinsurance program was initially designed to offset the costs of insuring sicker enrollees by collecting money from payers and the U.S. Treasury. Though the reduction in the reinsurance program has consistently caused premium increases, the committee claims that in 2017, "projected claims are expected to increase by 4 to 7 percent due to the program ending in 2016."

3. The risk pool. If enrollment levels or risk profiles are different than insurers' predictions for 2016, premiums for 2017 may be higher.

4. The "one-year moratorium of the ACA health insurance provider fee," which is assigned to health insurers to cover federal subsidies as part of the ACA. The committee believes it will decrease premiums by 1 to 3 percent.

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