A number of states that have expanded their Medicaid programs under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act have seen enrollment in their Medicaid programs far surpass initial projections, according to a report released this week by the Foundation for Government Accountability.
In fact, the report found that in many states with expanded Medicaid programs, more adults have enrolled in Medicaid than state officials believed would ever be eligible. The five states with the most significant differences between projections and actual enrollment were California, Illinois, Kentucky, Nevada and Washington.
Some politicians have described the enrollment surges as signs of immense "success," according to the report. However, authors argue that proponents of expansion have an incentive to keep their projections low when pitching expansion to state lawmakers and the public, so the program appears less expensive than it actually is.
FGA CEO Tarren Bragdon said in a statement the fact that every state with available data has outstripped projections should be a warning for any state that is considering Medicaid expansion.
Specific information on how states fared with their projections is available here.
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