The Congressional Budget Office scored the financial impact of the repeal-and-delay plan proposed by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
After the Senate's original ACA replacement plan, the Better Care Reconciliation Act, failed to gain support last weekend, Mr. McConnell proposed a full ACA repeal strategy that involves repealing major portions of the ACA and initiating a two-year delay to allow for development of a replacement plan. The repeal would come as an amendment to the House-approved American Health Care Act, similar to a measure the Senate passed in 2015 that was vetoed by former President Barack Obama.
Here are four key takeaways from the CBO score of the Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017.
1. The CBO estimates 32 million more people would be uninsured in 2026 relative to current law. The CBO projects the number of uninsured people would increase by 17 million in 2018 and then by 27 million in 2020 once the ACA's Medicaid expansion and subsidies to purchase coverage through the ACA marketplaces are eliminated, according to the CBO. That number would eventually reach 32 million in 2026. This is 10 million more than estimated under the BCRA.
2. Average premiums on the individual market would increase by approximately 25 percent in 2018 compared to projections under the ACA, according to the CBO. The CBO estimates average premiums would go up about 50 percent in 2020 and about double by 2026.
3. The repeal-and-delay plan would decrease the federal deficit by $473 billion over the next decade. This is an improvement over the $321 billion decrease estimated under the BCRA. The CBO estimates federal Medicaid spending would decline by $842 billion by 2026, largely due to elimination of Medicaid expansion. Federal spending on tax credits and selected coverage provisions would decrease by $454 billion during that time period, largely due to the termination of subsidies for people who buy insurance coverage on the individual market.
4. Under the repeal-and-delay plan, about 50 percent of Americans would live in areas with no insurer participating in the individual market in 2020. The CBO said this would be due to "downward pressure on enrollment and upward pressure on premiums." By 2026, the CBO estimates three-quarters of Americans would live in areas with no insurer participating in the individual market.